African Trends

Summary of a trend-monitoring brainstorm at the Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Centre (Italy).

“The Worldcup kicks off the African decade.” (Bono) Will this be the case? To what extend is this a media myth that only needs to be debunked? 50 years of independence, the world soccer championship and the UN conference on millennium goals are Africa’s 2010 milestones. Can Africa take stock and make a leap?

Some observations, delivered by some of the African participants:

* There is a quiet ‘extinction’ of the African male. What one can witness is the evolution of the ‘male parasite’. With this comes a sharp rise in single parent families. On top of this, like elsewhere in the world, African boys are not doing well at school.

* The rise of ‘familocracy’ and the collapse of the (post-independence) ruling political party. This results in a growth of power from the lower, local levels where families and clans are in charge. Will the district be the a future threat to the nation state? Why do we have ‘dynasty’ in Africa and to what extend is this related to corruption?

* There are elections but no democracy. This will remain the case for the time being.

* Growth in Africa has been slow over the past five decade but if it comes it might go fast and have a tipping point.

* The implementation of digital technologies in societies with high levels of alienation can be surprising. One of the consequences can be a new form of secession. What does it mean that Kenya is massively represented on Facebook? What are the long-term consequences of such large use of an American platform?

* Not China but Brazil and India will be dominant on the African continent. This is because of the close historical, cultural, migration ties.

* Economic growth will not, by definition, translate into poverty reduction.